Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.549097 8.695226 9.933161 11.366698 12.977965 14.729925 16.775841
2025-12-28 6.047429 7.631756 9.478656 11.778385 14.551899 17.774859 21.788470
2026-01-04 5.208300 6.974041 9.135772 11.953760 15.504241 19.801067 25.363153
2026-01-11 4.455251 6.301020 8.664402 11.875623 16.082729 21.360070 28.426406
2026-01-18 3.864884 5.738318 8.233976 11.749804 16.513940 22.675927 31.166565
2026-01-25 3.430359 5.325935 7.944050 11.755010 17.077390 24.151221 34.147398
2026-02-01 3.099248 5.014752 7.749721 11.851069 17.737242 25.753232 37.337853
2026-02-08 2.769472 4.665097 7.460121 11.773056 18.125642 26.978300 40.044679
2026-02-15 2.479254 4.341571 7.173533 11.663988 18.442195 28.094221 42.623369
2026-02-22 2.270577 4.122637 7.020700 11.732397 19.005567 29.567389 45.750715
2026-03-01 2.143646 4.022442 7.039439 12.056093 19.956405 31.630375 49.800571
2026-03-08 1.925686 3.745521 6.751069 11.871290 20.109170 32.509631 52.134080
2026-03-15 1.661922 3.364668 6.265880 11.342114 19.702778 32.544305 53.235639
2026-03-22 1.576373 3.295007 6.296520 11.659758 20.656365 34.692902 57.626761
2026-03-29 1.481030 3.196164 6.266117 11.866847 21.432593 36.587806 61.687796
2026-04-05 1.349542 3.014060 6.072759 11.777531 21.708118 37.697085 64.556856
2026-04-12 1.227325 2.836484 5.871539 11.656702 21.916669 38.697620 67.279340
2026-04-19 1.133763 2.706487 5.746541 11.660431 22.332210 40.042682 70.593958
2026-04-26 1.060173 2.609986 5.676183 11.756327 22.907738 41.667026 74.412333
2026-05-03 0.973039 2.474752 5.519294 11.678680 23.167881 42.768981 77.403698
2026-05-10 0.890750 2.340799 5.353306 11.570440 23.362636 43.760882 80.237982
2026-05-17 0.833702 2.257555 5.282279 11.638347 23.877072 45.312510 84.057312
2026-05-24 0.805071 2.237465 5.339447 11.959785 24.872758 47.730034 89.422868